BRANZ Build Insights combines multiple trusted datasets in one place, updating them as new information comes out. Seeing the indicators side by side gives a fuller picture of the building system than any single data point, showing more clearly what’s changing now and what the medium to long‑term pipeline might look like.
BRANZ Build Insights end of year wrap points to a medium-term recovery for the construction sector, with clearer timing now emerging. Both residential and commercial building activity is expected to gradually increase over the next five years. This outlook is based on updated economic modelling, the National Construction Pipeline Report, and recent Government commitments to major projects for schools and the NZ Defence Force, all pointing to a medium-term rebound in activity.
“Like the rest of the sector, we’ve been waiting to see when activity would start to turn a corner,” says BRANZ Senior Economist, Matt Curtis.
“Our modelling has consistently pointed to a gradual recovery rather than a sharp bounce-back, and we’re now seeing the first tangible signs of that recovery emerging in the data.
“This is encouraging news for construction companies’ forward planning. Demand is still relatively flat in the very near term, and 2026 looks set to be more of a consolidation year. But beyond that, the outlook is for activity to climb steadily.
“This quieter period is an opportunity for firms to prepare, review capacity, invest in capability and think carefully about how to respond as activity picks up.”
The latest BRANZ Build Insights report shows:
- Residential construction is expected to rebound from $28.2 Billion in 2025 to $35.3 Billion by 2029.
- Non-residential building will gradually rise from $13.2 Billion to $15.6 Billion by 2029.
- Infrastructure and other construction are expected to grow from $18.5 Billion in 2025 to $22.4 by 2029.
“With steady long-term growth on the horizon, this will mean more demand on the labour force and on the industry in general in the medium-term future.
“For homeowners and organisations considering a project, this interim period of softer demand may be a good window to get work underway before activity – and competition for resources – begin to climb after next year.” Says Curtis.
ENDS