A 2degrees’ Shaping Business 2026 study suggests New Zealand businesses are entering a new economic era, with the long-running expectation of a post-COVID recovery now over.
The annual study provides a longitudinal snapshot of business sentiment, tracking how confidence, priorities and pressures have evolved since the pandemic began.
Based on a survey of more than 500 business decision makers across Aotearoa, the 2026 report reveals a significant shift in business sentiment – defined less by recovery and more by adaptation.
Business leaders are increasingly accepting that the volatility and uncertainty of recent years are no longer temporary disruptions, but part of a more permanent operating environment.
Despite the ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, the report’s findings point to continued confidence in future growth. Sixty-one percent expect revenue growth over the next 12 months, while nearly half (49%) intend to increase investment.
From recovery to resilience
For much of the past five years, the belief that conditions would eventually return to normal acted as a consistent source of business optimism. This year’s findings suggest that effect has largely disappeared.
2degrees Chief Business Officer Andrew Fairgray says the long-term nature of the study makes this year’s shift particularly significant.
‘For several years, many businesses held onto the belief that conditions would eventually stabilise, and we’d return to something resembling pre-COVID normality,’ says Fairgray.
‘This year’s report shows that mindset is fading and what’s emerging now is something more pragmatic. Businesses are no longer planning around a recovery cycle - they’re adapting to a fundamentally different environment where productivity, adaptability and strategic investment will be the key drivers of future growth.’
A more pragmatic environment
The report also suggests the conversation around AI is becoming more grounded with businesses increasingly looking for practical ways to use AI to improve productivity and efficiency.
‘The conversation has shifted from “Should we use AI?” to ‘How do we actually make this work in a meaningful way for our business?’,’ says Fairgray.